Key Takeaways

• Voters who switched from Trump to Biden noted that the COVID-19 pandemic influenced their decision to switch sides. Clinton-to-Trump voters named their concern for the economy as the motive for flipping.
• Although the majority of voters from 2016 remained loyal to their candidates/parties, there were major shifts in the support given to candidates by key demographics. For example, 49% of voters with family incomes between $50,000 and $99,000 voted Trump in 2016 compared to only 42% in 2020, while Biden gained 11 points on the same income group.
• Trump's share of women's vote increased in the last election compared to the year 2016, moving up from 39% to 44%. 52% of men supported Trump in 2016 compared to 50% in 2020. Trump's support from white men also significantly dropped from 62% to 57%.

Introduction

Vote Flipping

• According to a report by the Washington Post, Biden flipped the votes of 4.8% of Republicans across the US in the 2020 presidential elections, while Trump got only 3.3% of Democrat votes.

 

Source

 

• In nine states of the US, including five states that were previously pro-Republican, Biden got 6% of his votes from citizens who had voted for Donald Trump in the 2016 elections. Those who did not vote in 2016 constituted 20% of Biden voters in 2020. Clinton voters in 2016 also made up 3% of Trump voters in those nine states in 2020.
• Voters who switched from Trump to Biden noted that the COVID-19 pandemic influenced their decision to switch sides. Clinton-to-Trump voters named their concern for the economy as the motive for flipping.
•  53% of voters who supported third-party candidates in 2016 voted Biden in 2020, while 36% voted for Trump. Only 10% of them remained third-party supporters in the last election.

Voter Demographic

• Although the majority of voters from 2016 remained loyal to their candidates/parties, there were major shifts in the support given to candidates by key demographics.
• Biden won over more suburban voters than Clinton had in the 2016 election. Hillary Clinton had 45% of suburban votes, while Joe Biden had 54% in 2020. Trump's share of rural votes rose from 59% to 65% in 2020.
• The suburbs moved their support from Trump to Biden. The cities and urban areas also voted Biden.

 

Source

 

• Votes for Democrats from individuals with High School education or less dropped from 44% to 41% between 2016 and 2020.
• Biden copped more votes, about 33%, from whites who do not have a college degree than Clinton did in 2016. This represents a 5 point increase from Clinton's 28%.
• Ex-President Trump's popularity among postgraduate degree holders rose from 29% to 32%.
• While Trump made some advancements with highly educated voters, research shows that the more education a person has, the more likely they are to vote for a Democrat.

 

Source

 

• White evangelical Protestants' support for Trump moved up from 77% in 2016 to 84% in 2020. Trump also lost Catholic votes, moving from 52% in 2016 to 50% in 2020.

 

Source

 

•  49% of voters with family incomes between $50,000 and $99,000 voted Trump in 2016 compared to only 42% in 2020, while Biden gained 11 points on the same income group.

 

Source

 

• Trump's share of women's vote increased in the last election compared to 2016, moving up from 39% to 44%. 52% of men supported Trump in the year 2016 compared to 50% in the year 2020. Trump's support from white men also significantly dropped from 62% to 57%.
• More Hispanics voted for Trump in 2020 than they did in 2016. Although Democrats maintained the upper hand with Hispanic voters, the vote margin dropped from 38% to 21% as Trump's share moved up from 28% to 38%.
• Despite appealing to Black men, Trump's black male vote plunged from 14% to 12% in 2020.

 

Source

 

• While President Biden won the votes of young people aged 18-29, the group's support for Trump improved. Trump's votes went up from 28% to 35%.

 

Source

 

Research Strategy